Actuarial Analysis of Historical Mortality Trends in Nigeria and Their Implications for Annuity Valuation

Olamide Eniola PATRICK; Hamadu A. DALLAH; Joseph Nnamdi MOJEKWU

Olamide Eniola PATRICK Department of Actuarial Science & Insurance, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos
Hamadu A. DALLAH Department of Actuarial Science & Insurance, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos
Joseph Nnamdi MOJEKWU Department of Actuarial Science & Insurance, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos

Keywords: Actuarial analysis, mortality, mortality trends, annuity valuation, pension, Nigeria

Abstract

This study analyses historical trends and patterns in age-specific mortality in Nigeria and their actuarial implications for annuity valuation. Using secondary data from the United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 revision), the study applied descriptive and trend analysis to age-specific death rates and life expectancy across selected ages from 1960 to 2024. Descriptive statistics, graphical trends, and comparative assessments were used to evaluate improvements in mortality by age and gender. The results show a consistent decline in mortality rates over time, with the fastest improvements observed among children and young adults, and slower reductions among older adults. Female mortality rates remained consistently lower than those of males, reflecting global longevity patterns. These findings indicate that longevity risk is increasing for pension and annuity providers as Nigerians live longer. The study concludes that periodic review of mortality assumptions is essential for accurate pricing and reserving. It recommends integrating actuarial analysis into national mortality monitoring to strengthen the financial sustainability of life-contingent products.