NON-OIL EXPORT AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1981-2020)

Abstract

Over the decade, Non-oil exports played a vital role in the growth of the Nigerian economy. Focusing on Nigeria's real economic growth, inflation, exchange rate and nonoil export, this study investigates the impact of non-oil exports on the economy of Nigeria using data from the years 1981 to 2020. The goal was to determine whether non-oil exports have an impact on Nigeria's real GDP. A model was developed to attain these goals, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique was employed as the analysis approach. In addition to other tests, the variables in the study were submitted to a stability test, a bound test, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF). The study demonstrates that, unlike other procedures, the ARDL Cointegration technique does not require pretests for unit roots. When dealing with variables that are integrated in various orders, I(0), I(1), or a mix of the two, the ARDL Cointegration technique is preferable and robust when there is a single long-run relationship between the underlying variables in a small sample size. The F-statistic (Wald test) detects the long-term relationship of the underlying variables. The ARDL results revealed, and the t-test of hypotheses examined, that non-oil exports, oil exports, and exchange rate have no effect on Nigerian economic growth and that there is a long-term link. According to the coefficient of determination, the dependent variable captures 79% of the independent factors. According to the report, for oil export and non-export to have an impact on Nigerian economic growth, a stable exchange rate and inflation must be monitored through regulations.