The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Nigeria, Focusing on Maize: Implications for Actuaries

Bankole Abiola; Sunday Michael Olaniyan; Olajide Solomon Fadun

Dr Bankole ABIOLA Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos. Nigeria
Sunday Michael OLANIYAN Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos. Nigeria
Dr Olajide Solomon FADUN Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos. Nigeria

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, temperature, maize, premium, actuary.

Abstract

In recent times, climate change has become one of the most complicated challenges facing human society. This study is aimed at establishing how the actuary is affected by the impact of climate change on agriculture. In this study, maize is the major agricultural product considered. Time series analysis (unit root test, cointegration and error correction model) via Eviews 9.0 was utilized to analyze the data obtained from the World Bank groups database and Food and Agricultural Organisation Statistical division 1961-2020, which contained a set of time series data on rainfall, temperature and yield of maize in Nigeria. The results showed climatic elements (rainfall, temperature) has no significant effect on the yield of maize in Nigeria. It is recommended that climate change through a natural occurrence should not be an added input to models for the calculation of premiums in Nigeria. Another agricultural risks such as institutional risk, production risk, human risk, price risk, and financial risk could be considered.